EN
EN
EN
Home / P80 Cost & Schedule Forecast Calibration

P80 cost & schedule
forecast calibration.

Research in progress · methodological simulation study

The study examines how cross-activity dependence affects the calibration of cost and duration P80 forecasts. Its synthetic project-network design allows systematic comparison of forecasting methods under clearly specified uncertainty conditions.

Concept illustration of the P80 cost or duration percentile
Conceptual illustration: a percentile expresses probability within a forecast distribution.

Research focus

Quantile calibration, dependence sensitivity and reproducible Monte Carlo simulation form the core of the work. The design separates numerical simulation accuracy from the assumptions used to represent relationships between activities.

Study MN-P80-CAL-01 · pre-results manuscript · method development and confirmatory evaluation in progress.

Back to research & publications