Before the Commitment
The question is not just “When will we finish?”
It is “What must remain true for us to finish then?”
Imagine a client meeting where a forecast completion date is about to become a delivery commitment.
Before accepting it, I would want the planner, procurement lead and site team to explain the assumptions together. Which approvals are outstanding? Which packages rely on the same supplier? What could affect several activities at once?
Then I would want clarity on the response: who owns the next action, when it is due, and what new evidence would trigger a forecast review.
That is the management question behind my publicly preregistered study of P80 cost and schedule forecast calibration under correlated project uncertainty.
The study examines how assumptions about dependence among activities may affect forecast reliability. It uses synthetic project networks, not evidence from a completed client project.
For me, the connection to construction project management is practical: challenge the assumptions with the people responsible for delivery, explain the remaining uncertainty, and make the next decision traceable.
I want a forecast that the team can interrogate and the client can understand—not just a date everyone feels pressure to accept.
Which assumption would you ask your team to justify before accepting a completion forecast?
Ongoing preregistered study. Synthetic project networks only; no participant, confidential project or company operational data. Confirmatory results are not yet available; the manuscript has not undergone peer review.
Preregistration:
Accompanying visuals
